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Dr Roger Humphry

Research Interests

Roger Humphry

My interest and expertise lies in quantitative agricultural and environmental science. The current areas of my work are:

  • BVD, its eradication and sample size calculation for screening for BVD
  • Antimicrobial resistance and its measurement
  • The consequence of empirically derived contact networks in cattle on the spread of disease

In addition to statistical modelling I have also published results from process-based modelling in BVD, Johnes and arable biodiversity.

My education is a degree in maths and plant science (Cambridge) and PhD in plant ecology (Liverpool) and statistical qualifications with the Open University and the Royal Statistical Society.


An online calculator for determining sample sizes when planning a two stage survey for estimating herd level prevalence and where the test is known to be imperfect (using method described in Humphry et al. 2004).


Responsible for delivering Epidemiological Concepts for Vets in Practice and management of the accompanying online epidemiological tools.

Responsible for KT projects on the use of maths in science and the workplace to secondary school pupils.

I have also lectured on the Open University’s mathematical modelling summer school and I have run introductory courses to statistics for NHS Highland.

Consultancy & Industry-liaison

  • Provide statistical advice to other researchers or students within NHS Highland and oversee management of data from pig health schemes
  • Member of the Royal Statistical Society’s Highland Committee

Selected Publications

  • Humphry, R.W., Reeves, A., Gunn, G.J. 2018. ‘Strategies for screening young stock for antibodies – optimising numbers to test, cut-points, predictive values for bovine viral diarrhoea virus’. Scientific Reports
  • Humphry, R.W., Evans, J., Webster, C., Tongue, S.C., Innocent, G.T., Gunn, G.J. 2018. An empirical comparison of isolate-based and sample-based de fi nitions of antimicrobial resistance and their eff ect on estimates of prevalence. Prev. Vet. Med. 150: 143-150. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.11.012
  • Henry, M. K., et al. 2017. “British Escherichia coli O157 in Cattle Study (BECS): to determine the prevalence of E. coli O157 in herds with cattle destined for the food chain”. Epidemiology & Infection. 145: 3168-3179
  • Duncan, A.J., Gunn, G.J., & Humphry, R.W. 2016. “Difficulties arising from the variety of testing schemes used for Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV). Veterinary Record. 178:292. doi:10.1136/vr.103329 Full text
  • Duncan, A.J.,  Gunn, G.J., Umstatter, C., & Humphry, R.W. 2014. “Replicating disease spread in empirical cattle networks by adjusting the probability of infection in random networks”. Theoretical Population Biology 98: 11-18 Full Text
  • Gates, M. , Humphry, R.W., Gunn, G.J., & Woolhouse, M. 2014 “Not all cows are epidemiologically equal: quantifying the risks of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) transmission through cattle movements” Veterinary Research 45: 110. doi:10.1186/s13567-014-0110-y Full Text
  • Humphry, R.W., & Gunn, G.J. 2014. “Antimicrobial resistance and bacterial density” Veterinary Record 174:202 doi:10.1136/vr.g1638 Full Text
  • Gates, M C; Humphry, R W; Gunn, G J, 2013. “Associations between bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) seropositivity and performance indicators in beef suckler and dairy herds”.
    Veterinary journal  198: 631-7 Full text
  • Gates, Woolhouse, Gunn & Humphry. 2013. “Relative associations of cattle movements, local spread, and biosecurity with bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) seropositivity in beef and dairy herds”. Full text
  • Humphry, RW,  Brülisauer, F.,  McKendrick, I.J., Nettleton, P.F.,  & Gunn, G.J. 2012 “Prevalence of antibodies to bovine viral diarrhoea virus in bulk tank milk and associated risk factors in Scottish dairy herds” Veterinary Record. Full Text

Dr Roger Humphry

Applied Statistician

Address: Future Farming Systems
Epidemiology Research Unit
Plot 10, An Lòchran
Inverness Campus

Telephone: 01463 246 059

Fax: 01463 711 103