Policy Analysis

We are a team of agricultural economists, modellers and data scientists specialising in measuring the impacts of policy on the agricultural, food and land use industries.  We use a range of quantiative approaches, to assess the spatial and temporal consequences of interventions within the rural economy and land use sector.  These include panal data analysis of the Farm Business Survey to understand economic viability, but also operational research techniques, bio-economic modelling and social network analysis analysis for ex post and ex ante evaluation of specific policies or technologies. 

We have considerable expertise on Agricultural Policy analysis and work with the Scottish Government and DEFRA on a range of issues pertinent to the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union.

Research Methods

We have a suite of farm-level and catchment-level models which provide indications of the response and resilience of agricultural enterprises and regions to Common Agricultural Policy and wider sectoral impacts.  These have involved coupling biophysical with economic models to provide an assessment of both environmental drivers, such as climatic change and the influence of price shocks on a fragile industry. Our recent work using ScotFarm, a model we developed of the Scottish agricultural economy can be found here.

• Thomson, S.G. and Vosough Ahmadi, B. (2018). A preliminary economic assessment of the veterinary profession’s value to Scotland. A report to the Scottish Government. Policy, Innovation and Behavioural Change Research Team, February 2018. Edinburgh.
• Shrestha, S., Thomson, S.G., Vosough Ahmadi, B., Barnes A.P. (2018). Assessing the impacts of alternative post-Brexit trade and agricultural support policy scenarios on Scottish farming systems.  Policy, Innovation and Behavioural Change Research Team: ScotFarm Policy Report 2018 (1). Edinburgh. 
• Elouhichi, K., Goded, M. E., Ciaian, P., Llorente, A. P., Ahmadi, B. V., Colen, L., & Paloma, S. G. Y. (2018). The EU-Wide Individual Farm Model for Common Agricultural Policy Analysis (IFM-CAP v. 1): Economic Impacts of CAP Greening (No. JRC108693). Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
• Barnes, A.P., McVittie, A and Ferreira, J. (2018) An ex-ante economic framework for evaluating the returns to agricultural research and development projects
• Barnes, A.P. (2017) A report on Resource Use Efficiency for Scottish Agriculture: trends, causes and constraints
• Barnes, A.P., Foreman, G. and Bevan, K. (2017).An analysis of wealth and viability of the Scottish agricultural sector

• A Review commissioned under the Scottish Government RESAS Policy Underpinning: Special Economic Studies - 2017/18. The Craft Beer and Artisanal Alcoholic (CBAA) Drinks Sector in Scotland
• Scottish Government (2011-2016): A rural economy resilient to global and local change (Theme 4)
• Scottish Government (2011-2016): Animal/plant health and disease and animal welfare (Theme 6)
• Scottish Land and Estates (2013-14): Economic contribution of estates in Scotland
• Scottish Government (2013-14): Scottish agricultural tenure evidence review
• Cairngorms National Park Authority (2013-14): The Economic, Social and Environmental Contribution of Landowners in the Cairngorms National Park
• Scottish Government (2012 - 2014) Doing Better Initiative to reduce Red Tape for Farmers & Rural Land Managers.  Interim Report and Final Report and Recommendations to Scottish Ministers (2014)
• BPEX (2012-2013). Development of tools and strategies for providing a robust herd health score and cost calculator for pig breeding and finishing herds
• Defra (2011-2013). Assessment of the efficacy of on-farm biosecurity measures for controlling Campylobacter
• MACSUR (2012-2015): A FACCE JPI knowledge hub for modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security
• Animal Change (2007-2013): An integration of mitigation and adaptation options for sustainable livestock production under climate change - a EU-FP7 funded project.

Recent Publications

1. Gülzari, Ş. Ö., Ahmadi, B. V., & Stott, A. W. (2018). Impact of subclinical mastitis on greenhouse gas emissions intensity and profitability of dairy cows in Norway. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 150, 19-29.
2. Allanson, P., Kasprzyk, K., & Barnes, A. P. (2017). Income mobility and income inequality in Scottish agriculture. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68(2), 471-493.
3. Ahmadi, B. V., Nath, M., Hyslop, J. J., Morgan, C. A., & Stott, A. W. (2017). Trade-offs between indicators of performance and sustainability in breeding suckler beef herds. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 155(1), 156-170.
4. McGechan, M.B.. Barnes, A.P., Fyuchan. R., Marley, C.M. (2017)., A simulation modelling study of water pollution caused by outwintering of cows.  Computers and Electronics in Agriculture,142,  pp 397-405.
5. Balafoutis, A. Beck B., Fountas, S.,Vangeyte, J., van der Wal, T., Soto-Embodas, I., Gómez-Barbero, M., Barnes A.P., Eory, V. (2017).  Precision Agriculture Technologies positively contributing to GHG emissions mitigation, farm productivity and economics.  Sustainability 9(8), 1339.
6. Wilkes, A., Barnes, A. P., Batkhishig, B., Clare, A., Namkhainyam, B., Chuluunbaatar, N., & Namkhainyam, T. (2017). Is cross-breeding with indigenous sheep breeds an option for climate-smart agriculture?. Small Ruminant Research, 147, 83-88.
7. Glenk, K., Shrestha, S., Topp, K., Sanchez, B., Iglesias, A., Dibari, C. and Merante, P. (2017).  A farm level approach to explore farm gross margin effects of soil organic carbon management. Agricultural Systems 151: 33-46.
8. Özkan, Ş., Vitali, A., Lacetera, N., Amon, B., Bannink, A., Bartley, D. J., Blanco-Penedo, I., de Haas, Y., Dufrasne, I., Elliott, J., Eory, V., Fox, N.J., Garnsworthy, P.C., Gengler, N., Hammami, H., Kyriazakis, I., Leclère, D., Lessire, F., Macleod, M., Robinson, T.P., Ruete, A., Sandars, D.L., Shrestha, S., Stott, A.W., Twardy, S., Vanrobays, M.L., Vosough Ahmadi, B. (2016). Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change. Environmental Research, 151, 130-144.
9. D’Eath, R.B., Niemi, J.K., Ahmadi, B.V., Rutherford, K.M.D., Ison, S.H., Turner, S.P., Anker, H.T., Jensen, T., Busch, M.E., Jensen, K.K. and Lawrence, A.B.  (2016). Why are most EU pigs tail docked? Economic and ethical analysis of four pig housing and management scenarios in the light of EU legislation and animal welfare outcomes. animal, 10(4), 687-699.
10. Kragt, M. E., Pannell, D. J., McVittie, A., Stott, A. W., Ahmadi, B. V., & Wilson, P. (2016). Improving interdisciplinary collaboration in bio-economic modelling for agricultural systems. Agricultural Systems, 143, 217-224.
11. Barnes, A.P., Guillam, E. and Murray-Rust, D.  Scaling up and out: Agent-based modelling to include farmer regimes.  In Shrestha, S.S., Barnes, A.P. and Vosburgh Ahmadi, B. (2016).  (eds).  Farm Level Modelling: Techniques, Applications and Policy.  CABI, Oxford, pp. 147-155
12. Guimaraes-Ferria, J., Abbot, P., and Barnes, A.P. Catchment level modelling.  .  In Shrestha, S.S., Barnes, A.P. and Vosburgh-Ahmadi, B. (2016).  (eds).  Farm Level Modelling: Techniques, Applications and Policy.  CABI, Oxford, pp. 156-172.
13. Barnes, A.P. (2016).  Can’t get there from here:  attainable distance, sustainable intensification and full scale technical potential.  Regional Environmental Change (forthcoming).
14. Barnes, A,P., Sutherland, L-A, Toma, L., Matthews, K and Thomson, S.G.  (2016). The effect of the Common Agricultural Policy reforms on intentions towards food production: evidence from livestock farmers.  Land Use Policy 50, 548-558
15. Barnes, A.P., Moxey, A.M., Vosough Ahmadi, B, Borthwick, F. (2015). The effect of animal health compensation on 'positive' behaviours towards exotic disease reporting and implementing biosecurity: a review, a synthesis and a research agenda. Preventative Veterinary Medicine 122 (1-2), 42–52
16. Barnes, A.P., Hannson, H.H., Mansveska-Tasevska, G., Shrestha, S. and Thomson, S. (2015).  The influence of diversification on long-term viablity of the agricultural sector.  Land Use Policy 49. 404–412.
17. Vosough Ahmadi, B., Shrestha, S., Thomson, S.G., Barnes, A.P., Stott, A.W. (2015). Impacts of greening measures and flat rate regional payments of the Common Agricultural Policy on Scottish beef and sheep farms. Journal of Agricultural Science. volume 153, issue 04, pp. 676-688.
18. Ahmadi, B. V., Moran, D., Barnes, A. P., & Baret, P. V. (2015). Comparing decision-support systems in adopting sustainable intensification criteria. Frontiers in genetics, 6, 23.
19. Toma, L., Low, J. C., Ahmadi, B. V., Matthews, L., & Stott, A. W. (2015). An analysis of cattle farmers' perceptions of drivers and barriers to on-farm control of Escherichia coli O157. Epidemiology & Infection, 143(11), 2355-2366.
20. S Shrestha, M Abdalla, T Hennessy, D Forristal and M Jones, 2015. Irish farms under climate change – is there a regional variation on farm responses? Journal of Agricultural Science. 153 (3): 385-398

Our research includes clients as diverse as:

• The Scottish Government
• Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
• Food Standard Agency (FSA)
• Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB),
• The European Commission and the EU
• The Government of Malawi board of agriculture, where we assist with mapping dairy farming and optimising management and production of the smallholder dairy farms.