Preliminary Liver Fluke Forecast, South West Scotland 2017

Latest Information

The information below compares 2012 and 2017 rainfall data by area for the May to July period.  2012 was selected for comparison as a baseline ‘wet year’.   

  • The Scotland West area has seen more wet days than in 2012. 
  • The Dumfries, England North West and North Wales figures are slightly drier than in 2012.

May to July rainfall data 2012 and 2017 

  Wet days ≥ 1mm rain 2012     (Total rainfall ml) Wet days ≥1mm rain 2017
(Total rainfall ml)
  May June July May June July

Dumfries

(SRUC Crichton)

9

(69.6)

17

(171.6)

19

(128.4)

7

(48.9)

15

(163)

14

(120.5)

Scotland

West*

10.5

(82)

15.9

(175.6)

 

18.6

(158.2)

 

11.3

(71)

18.7

(189.4)

18.9

(150.4)

England

NW/N Wales

9.7

(77.6)

 

18

(205.4)

 

18.3

(142.1)

9.6

(59.7)

14.9

(143.4)

17.7

(133)

* Met. Office regions.  See www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

In 2012 it continued to rain throughout August and September.  The first half of August 2017 has been pretty damp so a dry autumn would be helpful. 
Galba truncatula numbers at SRUC Barony Campus are lower than in August 2016 possibly reflecting the unusually dry winter.  However outbreaks of disease can occur at low snail densities so not too much weight should be given to this. 
Overall the data points towards a high risk of liver fluke this autumn. 
An update will follow in October.

For more detailed information on liver fluke Heather Stevenson has written a technical note providing up to date information for both vets and farmers.  This note can be downloaded from the link below:
http://www.sruc.ac.uk/downloads/file/3135/tn677_treatment_and_control_of_liver_fluke

On The Hoof
SAC Consulting – Veterinary Services
St Mary’s Industrial Estate
Dumfries
DG1 1DX

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